Global history of fossil fuel consumption from 1950

In early 2014 I am starting a new research project on the global history of fossil fuel consumption since 1950. There is a project outline here. I welcome contact with other historians working on similar themes.

Russian gas: how it's changing

The changes in international natural gas markets since the 2008 economic crisis have impacted powerfully on Russia. This is the subject of a book, published in May 2014 – The Russian Gas Matrix: HowMarkets Are Driving Change – that I have written with my colleagues at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. It covers the way that Gazprom, Russia’s dominant gas company, has been affected by new pricing trends and regulatory regimes in Europe, its main export market; the increased competition between Gazprom and other producers in Russia itself; far-reaching change in CIS markets; and Russian hopes of opening up the Asian export market. It looks at choices being made about the gas industry’s future – on export strategy, domestic market reform, and models of upstream development and taxation – that will affect not only Russia’s future as an energy exporter, but also its economy and population.  

The Ukraine crisis and natural gas markets

The change of government in Kyiv, the Russian military action in Crimea and the danger of war all have implications for the economic relations between Russia, Ukraine and Europe, especially in the sphere of energy. Russia supplies 30% of Europe's natural gas, and much of it is transported via Ukraine. Together with my colleagues at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, I have written a comment, What the Ukraine Crisis Means For Gas Markets, published on 10 March 2014.

Russian gas-to-power competition mounts

Russian gas producers are competing to sign long-term supply contracts with big buyers in the power sector - and the latest deal between E.ON Russia and Novatek confirms the trend. Some deals are being done below the regulated price of gas. The power sector is the largest source of gas demand in Russia - it consumes much more gas than Russia exports to Europe - but it's shrinking. I surveyed the background in an article in Gas Matters here.

The Russian Revolution in Retreat published - in Russian

I am very pleased to say that a Russian translation of my book The Russian Revolution in Retreat has just been published in Moscow by Novyi Khronograf. Details (in Russian) are here, and information about the original book and my research on the social history of 1920s Moscow (in English) here.

Ukraine LNG terminal "difficult, and maybe prohibitively expensive"

At the Ukraine Energy Forum this week, I argued that the proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification terminal on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast is “difficult, and maybe prohibitively expensive”. More effective methods of reducing Ukraine’s dependence on imported Russian gas include reverse-flow deliveries from central Europe, such as those recently made (in very small volumes so far) from Poland, and – above all – cutting gas consumption by energy saving and fuel switching, I argued.

I also commented on recent reports that Ukraine is talking to Turkmenistan about renewing direct gas purchases. Even if transport arrangements could be made, I suggested,  Turkmenistan will have no reason to sell gas to Ukraine at lower prices than Ukraine pays for Russian gas. Those nice people at Ukrainska Pravda reported my talk here (Ukrainian only).

Consumers as players in the Russian gas sector

The economic crisis of the last four years has significantly impacted the three main markets for Russian gas – the domestic market, the CIS importers (Ukraine and others) and the European market. In an Oxford Energy Comment, downloadable here, I outline the increasingly powerful role being played by consumers, from European and Russian energy companies to Ukrainian households.

A hard road to travel

The Oil Road by James Marriott and Mika Minio-Paluello takes "a perceptive, unusual view of the sweat, blood and tears" involved in the opening-up of an oil corridor from Azerbaijan to Europe, I have written in a review in International Affairs, downloadable here. There is information from the authors here.

Central Asian and Caspian Gas Production and the Constraints on Export

The confirmation of South Yolotan (Galkynysh) in Turkmenistan as one of the world’s largest natural gas fields has renewed interest in the Central Asian/Caspian region’s potential as a gas supplier. But reality has confounded many expectations. Apart from traditional export routes to Russia and Iran, the only new corridor opened up has been to China. My detailed survey of the region,published by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and downloadable here, focuses mainly on the four large gas producers (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan).

Tackling (or not) natural gas flaring and venting

Progress, and lack of it, by a multilateral initiative to cut down gas flaring - an oil industry practice that pours particularly large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere - is discussed in an  article on Gas Flaring Reduction Progress, here. The article also mentions cold venting, which has an even worse greenhouse effect, since it releases pure methane (which has twenty-plus times more greenhouse effect per cubic metre than carbon dioxide).

Russian gas: the next ten years

The way that Russia produces and markets natural gas will change substantially over the next decade, I wrote in the Oxford Energy Forum - now downloadable here (see page 12). Production will shift geographically, away from western Siberia; the corporate make-up will change, with Gazprom ceding share to others; domestic market liberalisation will probably the the most important determinant of change, with a further decline in Russia's share of the European market a possible corollary. And while exports to Europe become less important, Russia will continue to try to open up Asian markets.

How oil is destabilising Iraq

"Oil looks set to be a destabilising influence on Iraq's future", Greg Muttitt's recent book Fuel on the Fire, about Iraqi oil policy since 2003, concludes soberly. See my review published in International Affairs here and more on Muttitt's high-quality research here.