Response to Greenwich borough Climate Neutral Plan 2021-2030

I have written a response to the consultation on the Carbon Neutral Plan 2021-2030 for Greenwich borough, where I live. The plan recognises problems with carbon offsetting and negative emissions technologies: I suggested the council go further, and think in terms of a “zero carbon plan”. I urged the council to focus on the carbon budgets in the Tyndall centre Scatter tool, rather than those used by government. I suggested a wide public discussion on combining decarbonisation aims with measures to achieve social justice and resist government austerity policies. I called on the council to reverse its support for the climate-wrecking Silvertown Tunnel, the largest infrastructure project in the borough, which is incompatible with aspirations for cutting transport sector emissions. The council’s stubborn support for the tunnel is eroding local democracy, I argued, and I asked: “why would residents listen to anything the council has to say about the climate emergency, if it continues to support the tunnel project, so damaging for decarbonisation and air pollution policies, and does not even explain why?”  

The Direct Air Capture road to socialism?

I have taken a critical look at "left" support for geoengineering, and at talk of "ecological Leninism", in this review essay of Corona, Climate, Chronic Emergency by Andreas Malm. The essay was published by Capitalism Nature Socialism (March 2021). And the final draft of the text (pretty much what ended up being published) is downloadable here.

The transition away from fossil fuels: What could, and could not, be achieved by a Green New Deal

 I gave this talk, on zoom, to Teachers Against the Climate Crisis in India.

The market takes shape: the Ukrainian gas sector to 2030

Domestic gas market reform is moving ahead in Ukraine. The cycle of disputes with Russia on transit has been broken by the deal struck at the new year; the transit business continues to decline, while the storage business is soaring and interconnections with European markets are developing. Market pricing has been adopted for the residential sector, and the largely unreformed heat sector should follow in May 2021. Over the longer term, Ukraine’s integration not only with European gas markets but with European energy policy will determine whether gas demand will fall with coal or find new openings, firstly in the power sector. My paper published by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, is here.

Moscow, 1990: when Trotskyist travellers met Soviet reality

My retrospective, published by Open Democracy, on a Trotskyist meeting I helped organise in Moscow in 1990, and on Trotskyism before, during and after the collapse of the USSR.

The Silvertown tunnel is in a hole, so Stop Digging

This report, which I wrote, calls for the Silvertown tunnel project to be scrapped. It was published by the Transport Action Network, Stop the Silvertown Tunnel coalition, Speak Out Woolwich and Extinction Rebellion Greenwich. I also wrote some comments on it in The Ecologist.

European gas storage: backhaul helps open the Ukrainian safety valve

The European gas market is oversupplied, with demand down due to Covid-19. Storage facilities are filling up and Ukrainian companies are offering the country's huge storage capacity to European traders. With "virtual reverse flow" now in place, it's working well. An Oxford Energy Comment by my colleague Jack Sharples and me.

The Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal: opening a new chapter

Gazprom and Naftogaz Ukrainy signed agreements at the end of last year covering the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine for the period 2020-24, with transit volumes of 65 bcm in 2020 and 40 bcm per year thereafter. In this Oxford Energy Insight, Jack Sharples and I analyse how the deal was reached, the terms of the deal, the likely transit flows via Ukraine during the period of the deal, and what that means for Gazprom and for Naftogaz. In a linked Insight, Implications of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal for alternative pipeline routes and the Ukrainian and European markets, by Simon Pirani, Jack Sharples, Katja Yafimava and Vitaly Yermakov, we look at the broader picture of Russian gas exports to Europe in the light of the deal.

The Fossil Fuelled Monster and the Climate Failure of States

"Millions of school students, by striking to protest at government inaction on climate change, have brought popular rebellion back to the centre of international politics. The “Fridays for Future” strikes could turn out to be among the roots of deeper, wider, civil society movements to avert dangerous global warming." My article on the E-International Relations site.

Socialism, capitalism and the transition away from fossil fuels

Decarbonising the economy will be impossible unless we transform our economic and social systems. This means looking to a world beyond capitalism. My article for OpenDemocracy. It is based on a talk I gave at the University of Durham's Centre for Culture and Ecology on 16 January 2020. Slide presentation from the talk here.

An initial response to Greenwich council's Carbon Neutral Plan Evidence Base

I produced these notes as part of the local campaign to take action on the climate emergency.

Central Asian Gas: prospects for the 2020s

"Over the last decade, China has replaced Russia as the main export destination for Central Asian gas. Due to strong gas demand in China, in the early 2020s, the Central Asia-China pipeline corridor will be used close to its 55 Bcm/year capacity. An expansion to 85 Bcm/year is possible, by construction of Line D from Turkmenistan via Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to China, but this is unlikely to go ahead until it is seen as strategically necessary by China – that is, probably not before the late 2020s. Central Asian exports to Russia may continue to decline. Other routes – the proposed TAPI line to India, or westward exports to Europe via a Trans Caspian pipeline – are very unlikely to be opened up. As for supply, Turkmenistan has ample resources but it may take cooperation with Chinese and other foreign companies to develop them effectively. By contrast, both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have supply side constraints." - my paper, published by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies