Azerbaijan's gas sales strategy at a crossroads

The natural gas sales contract between the Shah Deniz consortium and Botas of Turkey, covering 6.6 bcm/year from the first phase of the project, expired last month and was not renewed. Deliveries stopped. In an Energy Comment for the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, I wrote that this throws a shadow over the future of the Southern Gas Corridor and the timing of Azerbaijan gas development.

Strategies for the new climate war

My review of The New Climate War by Michael Mann, in The Ecologist. “Enemy weapons, Michael Mann argues, include greenwash, illusory technofixes, and deflecting attention to individuals not companies. Agree. But the further Mann goes into the social implications of transition from fossil fuels, the greater problems I had.” 

Ukraine-EU gas market integration: short-term progress, long-term challenges

My colleague Jack Sharples and I wrote a paper, just published by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, that surveyed the recent changes in the gas storage market in Ukraine, the use of that storage capacity by European traders, and how this fits into the larger picture of the integration of the Ukrainian and European gas markets.  

Response to Greenwich borough Climate Neutral Plan 2021-2030

I have written a response to the consultation on the Carbon Neutral Plan 2021-2030 for Greenwich borough, where I live. The plan recognises problems with carbon offsetting and negative emissions technologies: I suggested the council go further, and think in terms of a “zero carbon plan”. I urged the council to focus on the carbon budgets in the Tyndall centre Scatter tool, rather than those used by government. I suggested a wide public discussion on combining decarbonisation aims with measures to achieve social justice and resist government austerity policies. I called on the council to reverse its support for the climate-wrecking Silvertown Tunnel, the largest infrastructure project in the borough, which is incompatible with aspirations for cutting transport sector emissions. The council’s stubborn support for the tunnel is eroding local democracy, I argued, and I asked: “why would residents listen to anything the council has to say about the climate emergency, if it continues to support the tunnel project, so damaging for decarbonisation and air pollution policies, and does not even explain why?”  

The Direct Air Capture road to socialism?

I have taken a critical look at "left" support for geoengineering, and at talk of "ecological Leninism", in this review essay of Corona, Climate, Chronic Emergency by Andreas Malm. The essay was published by Capitalism Nature Socialism (March 2021). And the final draft of the text (pretty much what ended up being published) is downloadable here.

The transition away from fossil fuels: What could, and could not, be achieved by a Green New Deal

 I gave this talk, on zoom, to Teachers Against the Climate Crisis in India.

The market takes shape: the Ukrainian gas sector to 2030

Domestic gas market reform is moving ahead in Ukraine. The cycle of disputes with Russia on transit has been broken by the deal struck at the new year; the transit business continues to decline, while the storage business is soaring and interconnections with European markets are developing. Market pricing has been adopted for the residential sector, and the largely unreformed heat sector should follow in May 2021. Over the longer term, Ukraine’s integration not only with European gas markets but with European energy policy will determine whether gas demand will fall with coal or find new openings, firstly in the power sector. My paper published by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, is here.

Moscow, 1990: when Trotskyist travellers met Soviet reality

My retrospective, published by Open Democracy, on a Trotskyist meeting I helped organise in Moscow in 1990, and on Trotskyism before, during and after the collapse of the USSR.

The Silvertown tunnel is in a hole, so Stop Digging

This report, which I wrote, calls for the Silvertown tunnel project to be scrapped. It was published by the Transport Action Network, Stop the Silvertown Tunnel coalition, Speak Out Woolwich and Extinction Rebellion Greenwich. I also wrote some comments on it in The Ecologist.

European gas storage: backhaul helps open the Ukrainian safety valve

The European gas market is oversupplied, with demand down due to Covid-19. Storage facilities are filling up and Ukrainian companies are offering the country's huge storage capacity to European traders. With "virtual reverse flow" now in place, it's working well. An Oxford Energy Comment by my colleague Jack Sharples and me.

The Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal: opening a new chapter

Gazprom and Naftogaz Ukrainy signed agreements at the end of last year covering the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine for the period 2020-24, with transit volumes of 65 bcm in 2020 and 40 bcm per year thereafter. In this Oxford Energy Insight, Jack Sharples and I analyse how the deal was reached, the terms of the deal, the likely transit flows via Ukraine during the period of the deal, and what that means for Gazprom and for Naftogaz. In a linked Insight, Implications of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal for alternative pipeline routes and the Ukrainian and European markets, by Simon Pirani, Jack Sharples, Katja Yafimava and Vitaly Yermakov, we look at the broader picture of Russian gas exports to Europe in the light of the deal.

The Fossil Fuelled Monster and the Climate Failure of States

"Millions of school students, by striking to protest at government inaction on climate change, have brought popular rebellion back to the centre of international politics. The “Fridays for Future” strikes could turn out to be among the roots of deeper, wider, civil society movements to avert dangerous global warming." My article on the E-International Relations site.