Monday, 30 December 2019
"Over the last decade, China has replaced Russia as the main export destination for Central Asian gas. Due to strong gas demand in China, in the early 2020s, the Central Asia-China pipeline corridor will be used close to its 55 Bcm/year capacity. An expansion to 85 Bcm/year is possible, by construction of Line D from Turkmenistan via Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to China, but this is unlikely to go ahead until it is seen as strategically necessary by China – that is, probably not before the late 2020s. Central Asian exports to Russia may continue to decline. Other routes – the proposed TAPI line to India, or westward exports to Europe via a Trans Caspian pipeline – are very unlikely to be opened up. As for supply, Turkmenistan has ample resources but it may take cooperation with Chinese and other foreign companies to develop them effectively. By contrast, both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have supply side constraints." - my paper, published by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Tuesday, 3 December 2019
The trilateral talks between the EU, Russia, and Ukraine on transit of Russian gas via Ukraine beyond the expiry of the existing transit contract, on 31 December 2019, have failed to yield a solution. With the deadline fast approaching, the sides remain far apart. This paper, written jointly with my colleagues Tatiana Mitrova and Jack Sharples, assesses the state of the negotiations, the likelihood of an interruption in transit via Ukraine in January 2020, and the potential impact.