Central Asian and Caspian Gas Production and the Constraints on Export

The confirmation of South Yolotan (Galkynysh) in Turkmenistan as one of the world’s largest natural gas fields has renewed interest in the Central Asian/Caspian region’s potential as a gas supplier. But reality has confounded many expectations. Apart from traditional export routes to Russia and Iran, the only new corridor opened up has been to China. My detailed survey of the region,published by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and downloadable here, focuses mainly on the four large gas producers (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan).

Tackling (or not) natural gas flaring and venting

Progress, and lack of it, by a multilateral initiative to cut down gas flaring - an oil industry practice that pours particularly large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere - is discussed in an  article on Gas Flaring Reduction Progress, here. The article also mentions cold venting, which has an even worse greenhouse effect, since it releases pure methane (which has twenty-plus times more greenhouse effect per cubic metre than carbon dioxide).

Russian gas: the next ten years

The way that Russia produces and markets natural gas will change substantially over the next decade, I wrote in the Oxford Energy Forum - now downloadable here (see page 12). Production will shift geographically, away from western Siberia; the corporate make-up will change, with Gazprom ceding share to others; domestic market liberalisation will probably the the most important determinant of change, with a further decline in Russia's share of the European market a possible corollary. And while exports to Europe become less important, Russia will continue to try to open up Asian markets.

How oil is destabilising Iraq

"Oil looks set to be a destabilising influence on Iraq's future", Greg Muttitt's recent book Fuel on the Fire, about Iraqi oil policy since 2003, concludes soberly. See my review published in International Affairs here and more on Muttitt's high-quality research here.

Russo-Ukrainian tensions rise over gas contracts

The war of words between Moscow and Kyiv over gas prices has intensified again, and they could remain at loggerheads throughout the winter. The dispute could even hasten measures in Ukraine to diversify supply and improve energy efficiency. Read more here.

My favourite books on Putin's Russia ...

... are a Berezovsky biog, a collection on oil and gas economics, a classic on car workers and their unions, a world-systems-theory take on the Caucasian intelligentsia, and a war memoir. That's what I told the nice people from The Browser who called up and interviewed me - see here.

How the FSU's energy saving potential might be realised

It’s obvious that the massive potential for energy saving in the former Soviet Union has not been realised – but less obvious why it has not, and how the obstructions can be removed. My extended working paper, Elusive Potential: Natural Gas Consumption in the CIS and the Quest for Efficiency, published today by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and downloadable here, considers the issue in depth and examines how and why gas consumption patterns may change.

Political risk impacts investment into Russia

Foreign direct investment is paltry and capital continues to flow out of Russia, as an election approaches. Read a report from Emerging Markets newspaper here.

Economic foundations of Lukashenko's Belarus tremble

The regime will struggle to resolve the currency crisis in Minsk, which is compounded by pressure from Moscow. Read more here.

SE Asia farmers ‘need climate change measures now’

Development institutions need to help south east Asian farmers adapt to the impacts of climate change now, researchers are warning. Published in Emerging Markets here.

Nord Stream threatens Ukraine’s share of transit while domestic production slows

Published in Gas Matters, April 2011

Ukraine’s share of Russian gas transit to Europe remains under threat mid- to long-term, despite a promise by Gazprom to raise transit volumes via Ukraine to 112 bcm/year for five years. Ukraine’s talks about the transit network’s future, with Russia on one hand and European institutions on the other, are dragging on inconclusively. Meanwhile efforts to raise domestic production, and streamline consumption, move forward slowly. Full article here

Russia's modernization means conquering oil dependence

I reviewed discussion among economists about the Russian economy's prospects in the global recovery here http://www.emergingmarkets.org/Article/2682714/Europe/RUSSIAN-ECONOMY-Russias-oil-problem.html